Pre-Event Performance Modelling is about simulating event performance to glean time-on-course predictions based on an athlete's current or future attributes and ability. Performance simulation or prediction serves three components of any structured training programme or coaching process:
  • Athlete Profiling - defining expected event performances at current ability.
  • Performance Benchmarking - studying event demands and the ability levels required to win or compete.
  • Goal Setting - defining a path of improvement from current ability to the levels desired on race day.
Performance simulation makes the goal setting process real. Current power numbers lead to accurate predictions of event performance, scenarios inform goal setting, and gap analysis translates improvements in ability or field test results into a tangible zeroing-in on objectives.

Simulations also facilitate race day performance optimisations derived from powerful analytical intelligence. The ability to test and investigate performane differentials under a multitude of scenarios and assumptions promises FREE SPEED in three ways:
  • Variable Power Pacing - Investigate time savings achievable with strategies such as Negative Splits & Pyramids.
  • Optimal Pacing - Uncover the fastest strategy consistent with physiological limitations through thousands of simulations.
  • Component Optimisation - Identify time savings due to alternate wheels choices in probability weighted wind scenarios.
Take a look at at an example Pre-Event model to understand the benefits...

Overview




Modelling Parameters & Assumptions





Similated Time On Course (Constant Power Output)
- In nil & specified wind conditions

Power & Mass Delta - How much faster with more watts or less weight?

Time On Course with Variable Power Pacing

Achievable Time Saving with our Optimised Pacing Strategy

Time differential due to alternate wheelset
Wind & Course

"Wind Rose" - Historical wind probabilities on this course
- Through 10 years, in the event month only









Course orientation relative to wind probabilities
- Identify headwind, sidewind, and wind assisted sectors here
Constant & Variable Power Ride Plans


High resolution course profile
- Hundreds or thousands of waypoints ensure accurate modelling




Four quarters of the course...summary bearings & elevation change


Simulated performance with constant power pacing
- Time, Kph, Energy, Power & Mass Delta



Simulated Performance with variable power pacing
- Sector Powers
- Time, Kph, Energy, Power & Mass Delta
Optimal Pacing Strategy


Simplified 10 sector course for optimal pacing evaluation


Optimal speed and power
- Fastest of 100,000 simulations



Summary bearings, gradient, head wind & yaw angles



Sector by sector power and statistics



Course-so-far power and statistics
- Simple pacing cheat-sheet for a stem
Wheelset Optimisation



Simulated wind yaw angles in specified wind conditons




Power cost of aerodynamic drag
- Baseline versus alternate wheelsets



Time On Course in specified and most probable wind scenarios






Wind probability weighted time on course
- The definitive wheelset optimisation
Improvement Scenarios



Scenarios - More Power, through +50 watts





Scenaros - Less rider or machine weight,  through -5 kilos





Scenarios - Less aerodynamic drag, through -10% of CdA
Gradient, Cadence & Gearing


Gradient Study - Total distance at gradient





Gradient Study - Max distance at average gradient





Cadence & Gearing Scenarios - Steepest gradients, 500m or more
Race Simulation Workout Files



.ERG & .MRC files compatible with RacerMate CompuTrainer & more






TrainerRoad extended ERG files






ZWO files for Zwift workouts
Configure A Performance Model




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