Pre-Event Performance Modelling is about simulating event performance to glean time-on-course predictions based on an athlete's current or future attributes and ability. Performance simulation or prediction serves three components of any structured training programme or coaching process:
  • Athlete Profiling - defining expected event performances at current ability.
  • Performance Benchmarking - studying event demands and the ability levels required to win or compete.
  • Goal Setting - defining a path of improvement from current ability to the levels desired on race day.
Performance simulation makes the goal setting process real. Current power numbers lead to accurate predictions of event performance, scenarios inform goal setting, and gap analysis translates improvements in ability or field test results into a tangible zeroing-in on objectives.

Simulations also facilitate race day performance optimisations derived from powerful analytical intelligence. The ability to test and investigate performane differentials under a multitude of scenarios and assumptions promises FREE SPEED in three ways:
  • Variable Power Pacing - Investigate time savings achievable with strategies such as Negative Splits & Pyramids.
  • Optimal Pacing - Uncover the fastest strategy consistent with physiological limitations through thousands of simulations.
  • Component Optimisation - Identify time savings due to alternate wheels choices in probability weighted wind scenarios.
Take a look at at an example Pre-Event model to understand the benefits...


Modelling Parameters & Assumptions

Similated Time On Course (Constant Power Output)
- In nil & specified wind conditions

Power & Mass Delta - How much faster with more watts or less weight?

Time On Course with Variable Power Pacing

Achievable Time Saving with our Optimised Pacing Strategy

Time differential due to alternate wheelset
Wind & Course

"Wind Rose" - Historical wind probabilities on this course
- Through 10 years, in the event month only

Course orientation relative to wind probabilities
- Identify headwind, sidewind, and wind assisted sectors here
Constant & Variable Power Ride Plans

High resolution course profile
- Hundreds or thousands of waypoints ensure accurate modelling

Four quarters of the course...summary bearings & elevation change

Simulated performance with constant power pacing
- Time, Kph, Energy, Power & Mass Delta

Simulated Performance with variable power pacing
- Sector Powers
- Time, Kph, Energy, Power & Mass Delta
Optimal Pacing Strategy

Simplified 10 sector course for optimal pacing evaluation

Optimal speed and power
- Fastest of 100,000 simulations

Summary bearings, gradient, head wind & yaw angles

Sector by sector power and statistics

Course-so-far power and statistics
- Simple pacing cheat-sheet for a stem
Wheelset Optimisation

Simulated wind yaw angles in specified wind conditons

Power cost of aerodynamic drag
- Baseline versus alternate wheelsets

Time On Course in specified and most probable wind scenarios

Wind probability weighted time on course
- The definitive wheelset optimisation
Improvement Scenarios

Scenarios - More Power, through +50 watts

Scenaros - Less rider or machine weight,  through -5 kilos

Scenarios - Less aerodynamic drag, through -10% of CdA
Gradient, Cadence & Gearing

Gradient Study - Total distance at gradient

Gradient Study - Max distance at average gradient

Cadence & Gearing Scenarios - Steepest gradients, 500m or more
Race Simulation Workout Files

.ERG & .MRC files compatible with RacerMate CompuTrainer & more

TrainerRoad extended ERG files

ZWO files for Zwift workouts
Configure A Performance Model